00513 The world is evolving: choosing the top index (e.g., Nasdaq 100), a reverie of the AI age

I. Episode Theme

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This episode revolves around the core concept of long-term investing, emphasizing the importance of maintaining composure amidst inevitable market fluctuations, adhering to investments in high-quality index funds (such as the Nasdaq 100), and exploring the profound impact of AI development on the future of society and personal wealth. It also provides in-depth answers to specific questions raised by students regarding investment tool selection, asset allocation strategies, and market psychology.

II. Summary

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Operations and Reminders

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• Clubhouse Hiatus Announcement: Clubhouse and video uploads will be suspended for the next two weeks (May 3rd and May 10th), resuming on May 17th (Saturday).
• Clubhouse Technical Issues: Recent issues with sound being inaudible or too low. It’s recommended to leave and re-enter the room, or completely close and reopen the app.
• Speaking Rules: Accidental stage entries are fine, just stay on stage; no need to repeatedly enter and exit.
• Disclaimer: All sharing is for reference only. Investment decisions are the individual’s responsibility. We are not professional investment advisors or tax professionals; sharing is based on personal experience. Long-term investment has low risk, short-term investment has high risk. Those who cannot tolerate short-term losses or are worried about asset devaluation should not invest and can choose fixed deposits instead.
• Learning Resources: Lecture notes are pinned in the Clubhouse comment section or the YouTube comment section. Newcomers are advised to start with video 00451, then 398-402, and then the latest for systematic learning (although there are as many as four or five hundred videos).
• Community Groups: No official groups are established. Participation in unofficial groups requires caution. If the group information is noisy, annoying, and not beneficial to life, it is recommended to leave. Groups aimed at sharing CLEC concepts, helping each other answer questions, and providing information are welcome.

Investment Philosophy and Strategies

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• Market Volatility is Normal: The market is always fluctuating; this is the unchanging rule. No need to analyze specific reasons (international situation, trade war, financial report forecasts, etc.). Many analysts themselves do not truly understand. The market is like the sea, unaffected by streams and storms.
• Long-Term Investing: True investment is buying with the intention of never selling. Intending to sell at a high point is speculation. Investment must be long-term.
• Index Investing:
  • Core Recommendation: Nasdaq 100 Index Fund (QQQ and its global equivalents). Reason: Compared to the S&P 500 (500 companies, possibly 450 “bad companies”), the Nasdaq 100 focuses more on high-quality technology companies, aligning with the “the bigger, the stronger” trend.
  • Retirees/Those with Less Capital: Consider Taiwan 0056 or US SPHD (dividend yield ~3.5%, providing stable cash flow).
  • Nasdaq 100 ETF List: Provides a list of relevant ETFs including various countries (Canada HXQ.t, Singapore, Malaysia, Norway, UK, Australia, etc.). HXQ.t is recommended because it does not pay dividends (tax-free).
  • Historical Experience: Watching videos since 2018 can provide insights into investor sentiment and responses during market fluctuations, giving a sense of the long-term perspective.
• Stay Optimistic: Investors need to be extremely optimistic, always facing the sunlight, believing that the market will be good in the long run, even if there is a world war, the market still exists and continues to rise (only rises, never falls).
• Investment Target Selection:
  • 00864B vs 00865B (Taiwan Bond ETF):
    • 00864B: Pays dividends, generating National Health Insurance Supplementary Premium (2.11%), requires manual reinvestment (with handling fees, easy to forget resulting in no compounding), dividends are considered overseas income (requires declaration if it exceeds the limit, but usually not a problem with annual income below NT$1 million; according to student feedback, it is exempt from the second-generation health insurance supplementary premium).
    • 00865B: Does not pay dividends, avoiding the above problems, simpler and more effective in the long run. Low trading volume is not a problem (market makers provide liquidity), initial performance differences will shrink as scale increases. Strongly recommend switching to 00865B; convenience is a value. Conversion will incur a one-time transaction cost, but worth it in the long run.
  • Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A/B):
    • Not recommended for investment. Reason: Actively managed fund, more volatile than the index; times are changing, performance has lagged behind the S&P 500; uncertainty after Buffett (“the devil will come out”); learning Buffett should be about learning his long-term investment spirit, investment discourse (such as the definition of investment), rather than stock picking. Investing in the S&P 500 may be better than investing in BRK.
• Asset Allocation (Beta):
  • Basic Principle: It is recommended that most people allocate an investment portfolio with a Beta value of less than 1, such as 70% index funds + 30% cash/money market funds (Beta is approximately 0.7).
  • Risk Tolerance: The recent 20% drop has made many people uncomfortable (even those with a Beta of 1.2 configured at 4:4:2), indicating that actual risk tolerance may be lower than expected. Do not sacrifice the comfort of holding enough cash (“don’t gamble with the money you need for the money you don’t need”) for an extra 1-2% of return.
  • Adjustment: If the initial Beta is high (such as 1.2), it is recommended to review it at the end of each year. If the market rises, you can sell part of the leveraged/index position and supplement the cash to more than 30%, gradually reducing the Beta to below 1.0. Consider smart rebalancing after the Beta is below 1.0.
• Platform Interaction: Please subscribe, like, and leave comments on videos on various platforms.

AI Development Fantasies and Impact

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• AI Optimized Future:
  • Productivity greatly improved, most output is completed by AI (robots), and the cost of goods approaches zero.
  • Total social wealth accelerates, basic living needs (food, clothing, housing, transportation) may be free, uniformly supplied by the state/society (AI robots complete production, construction, and maintenance).
• Social Structure Changes:
  • Classes Still Exist:
    • Capitalists: Earn profits by investing in and holding the means of production (AI systems) without labor; the wealthiest. Everyone can become a capitalist (just need to know how to invest).
    • High-Tech Workers: Personnel who maintain and manage AI systems, with excellent income, can enjoy entertainment beyond basic needs (such as space travel), but may fall into the “cared-for” class if they stop working and do not become capitalists.
    • Cared-For Class (approximately 80%): No need to work, basic life is guaranteed (food, clothing, housing, transportation, medical care), but cannot enjoy additional entertainment or resources. The standard of living may be similar to the current upper-middle class, but without work.
• Philosophical Challenges:
  • When most people do not need to contribute for livelihood (“nothing to serve”), what is the meaning and purpose of life? (Analogous to being idle after retirement). May lead to widespread depression or social problems.
  • Human development may enter a stage of eternal life, facing greater philosophical and existential questions.
  • The focus should shift from “unemployment” to “the meaning of life.”
• Implications for Investors:
  • As capitalists, there is no need to worry about job loss due to AI development; on the contrary, they will become wealthier.
  • Start investing now to become part of the capitalist class.

III. Q&A Session

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Jacel

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• Question: SPY and QQQ have risen for three days, will they continue to rise or fall next week?
  • James’ Response: Short-term market cannot be predicted, like flipping a coin. We invest for the long term (20+ years), focusing on long-term trends. Buy when you have money, never sell. Don’t try to predict next week’s market; ask the temple or the “stock god” in Clubhouse.
• Sharing: Just started learning from the teacher’s course two months ago, introduced by a friend in the United States. Currently in the learning stage, and has invested in some QQQ (cost between 515-530). After returning to Taiwan, considering investing in 00662. In the process of canceling previous insurance and converting individual stocks to 00662.
• Question: Should I invest in US stocks (Firstrade account, worried about political risks in Taiwan for the child) or Taiwan stocks 00662? How to allocate at the beginning?
  • James’ Response: Recommend investing in 00662 in Taiwan, no need to use a US broker (Firstrade). It’s better for the child to rely on themselves rather than worry about politics. When starting to learn, it is recommended to divide the total funds into three parts: 1/3 buy 00662 immediately, 1/3 buy in batches over the next 3-6 months, and 1/3 hold in cash. The ultimate goal is 70% 00662 + 30% cash. Then slowly learn whether and how to allocate leveraged funds (adjust the Beta value to 0.8-0.9).

Nibalao

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• Question 1: Who are QQQ and SPHD suitable for in terms of capital size?
  • James’ Response: (Points out that students should watch the videos for repeated questions) This is a consideration for retirees. Need to calculate annual expenses after retirement. If 50 times the expenses equals your total assets, you can invest in QQQ (equivalent to a 2% annual withdrawal rate). If 2% is not enough, you need 3%, you may consider the S&P 500. Only consider SPHD if you need even higher (~3.5-4%). Non-retirees should prioritize the high-growth QQQ.
• Question 2: Explain Beta value. Beta=1 is synchronized with the market? Beta=1.2 is 1.2 times the volatility? Is the Beta of an 80% QQQ + 20% SGOV portfolio 0.8?
  • James’ Response: Basic understanding is correct. Beta measures the volatility of an asset relative to the market. The Beta of an 80/20 portfolio is approximately 0.8. (Reminds again that the videos explain it)
• Question 3: Will the principal of SGOV (Short-Term US Treasury ETF) fall and lose money?
  • James’ Response: The principal risk is extremely low, almost no losses (except for minor fluctuations before and after dividend payments). SGOV invests in short-term Treasury bills (T-Bills) issued by the US Treasury Department with a maturity of 0-3 months (or within one year), backed by the credit of the United States.

Rui

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• Sharing: Joined for more than a month and reviewed the market decline in 2022 and the teacher’s videos (especially #398 graduation episode, learned investment psychology).
• Question 1: In January 2023 (#401), the teacher used technical indicators (50/100-day moving average crossover) to judge the market bottom and predict that 2023 would be a bull market, which was also verified afterwards. However, in later videos (#491), he emphasized not to predict market cycles and not to look at macroeconomic indicators (prosperity signals, macroeconomics, inventory cycles, etc.). Why this change? Are these indicators really useless in the long run? What was the basis for judging the bottom (just because of being optimistic about the stock market)? Should we just follow discipline and rebalance once a year?
  • James’ Response: QQQ includes many industries (semiconductors, software, AI, biotechnology, retail such as Costco, Pepsico, Amazon, Google, Apple, etc.), and indicators for a single industry or country (such as Taiwan semiconductor economy, Taiwan prosperity signals, US prosperity signals) cannot reflect the overall index. Looking at all indicators is the same as looking at the index itself, so it is better to just focus on QQQ. The judgment in early 2023 was based on 40 years of experience (calculated that the 6-month moving average would cross upward), which is difficult to convey (“unspeakable”), and teaching technical analysis may cause students to misuse it and be harmed (“go crazy”), so it is not taught. Adhering to long-term investment discipline and holding enough cash buffer (such as 30%) is a more reliable method. Even if judging the bottom at that time, all cash would not be invested (such as still maintaining Beta 0.7), still maintaining a margin of safety. No need to take too much risk for small potential gains (referring to Buffett’s philosophy).
• Question 2: About the currency hedging of 00670L (Taiwan Leveraged QQQ ETF). Is the impact of exchange rate fluctuations significant in the long run? If the US dollar falls sharply (such as 1:13 against the Taiwan dollar), how will 00670L perform? (The teacher mentioned before that 00670L performs poorly when the US dollar rises)
  • James’ Response: 00670L is usually paired with 00865B (cash/short-term bonds). Exchange rate fluctuations have a hedging effect on both (when the US dollar rises, the hedging cost of 00670L increases, but the value of US dollar assets increases; the opposite is true when the US dollar falls). In the long run, exchange rate fluctuations are normal (such as the Taiwan dollar fluctuating between 28-32), but there is no fixed trend, and the expected value is zero. Currency hedging itself has a cost (wasting funds), which may not be necessary in the long run (it is recommended that fund companies consider canceling it), but the ETF is designed that way, and it does not hurt. The key is whether 00670L can achieve approximately twice the return of 00662 in the long run.

Mike

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• Sharing: Trump mentioned that 5.6 trillion in foreign investment may be invested in the United States in the future (may be exaggerated, even if halved, 2.8 trillion is also considerable), but the direction is beneficial to AI and QQQ. Observed that QQQ rebounded more strongly than SPY, DIA, and BRK recently, confirming the teacher’s point of view (such as Katy Wood investing in AI-related companies when she saw mobile internet access). Compare the leadership styles of Chinese and American leaders (leader vs. manager) and the direction of attracting foreign investment (Saudi Arabia/Dubai vs. Myanmar/Vietnam/Malaysia).
• Question: Please explain the difference between CIPS (Chinese RMB Cross-Border Payment System) and SWIFT. Why is CIPS faster (completed in 6 seconds)? Why does SWIFT take days? Can SWIFT be improved? Will this affect the status of the US dollar (AI replied that the two will coexist)?
  • James’ Response: SWIFT is based on the traditional telegram transmission model (like a relay station), and information needs to be transferred through multiple layers (local bank -> regional major bank -> central bank -> SWIFT center (Switzerland) -> the other party’s central bank -> the other party’s head office -> the other party’s branch), involving compliance checks (anti-money laundering), time difference, manual processing, etc., so it takes a long time (2+ days). CIPS is a modern real-time gross settlement system, similar to domestic payment systems in various countries, point-to-point or directly cleared through the central bank, and the speed is fast. CIPS uses RMB and is an alternative developed to deal with SWIFT being weaponized (such as sanctions against Russia), making people distrust the US dollar system. US sanctions opened a Pandora’s box. Currently, CIPS is small (such as shipbuilding transactions between Malaysia and China), but it represents the trend of “currency wars” (such as Saudi Arabia and China being linked). Trump’s visit to Saudi Arabia may be related to maintaining the status of the US dollar. Just watch the show.

Xiu

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• Question: Regarding the customized version of ChatGPT (CCTeams Investment Advisor) shared by the teacher, its knowledge cutoff date seems to be June of last year. Is the teacher using an updated version? Will the link change after the update? (Previously confused HXQ/HSQ).
  • James’ Response: Indeed, this AI is constantly being updated and trained. The link may change with updates. The latest link (showing content updated on April 26, such as 70/30 allocation recommendations) has been shared in the chat area. New links will be provided regularly (such as weekly or monthly) in the future. The teacher himself uses a more advanced personal “Super AI” account (possibly GPT-4o or higher, with memory function) to process and extract information, and then “feeds” the essence to this publicly shared GPTs version (similar to DIPS extraction). Feedback on AI answers is welcome for improvement.

Yao

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• Sharing: Because of recent trade tensions, I re-listened to the 2022 recordings. Two points are profound: 1. The biggest risk is missing the market (leaving the market). 2. Focus on long-term returns, not short-term fluctuations/shocks. The market is full of contradictory information (repeated presidential statements, pessimistic commentators) and bad news, but it often rebounds unintentionally. Friends who wait for a clear trend (such as buying after the big trend comes back) miss the rise. No one can accurately time the market. It is extremely difficult to obtain stable and high returns in the long term (such as an annualized return of 10% or more), like the sustained performance of top athletes (such as playing ball for 20 years); it is easy to have a good shot occasionally, but difficult to be stable in the long term. It is essential to stay in the market for a long time and focus on long-term growth.
  • James’ Response: Strongly agree. Investing is like a long-distance race, continuing to stay in the front (such as 3rd or 4th place) will eventually win, because the leaders often make mistakes. This is how index funds are, not the best in a single year, but leading in the long term. Need an investment horizon of 15+ years. The key to persistence is having sufficient cash reserves (especially for retirees, it is recommended to have living expenses for 15+ years) or a continuous work income.

Monmon

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• Sharing 1: Started following the teacher last year, investing on my own and encouraging elders (sold insurance and invested). Recently, I have experienced a market decline and am at peace, but the elders are experiencing large fluctuations for the first time (they adopted a Beta 1.2 allocation). Through repeatedly watching videos and communicating, the elders’ confidence is still stable.
• Sharing 2: Selling a house has been tortuous: difficulty communicating with my husband (disagreed at first, had disputes), cold market (the central bank fought housing speculation in September, difficult to get loans), price reduction (applied the teacher’s concept of “there is no house that cannot be sold, only a price that cannot be sold”) to complete the sale (in February this year). The process was painful (communication, management, market changes, funds stuck, high taxes), and I learned a lesson that I don’t want to experience again.
• Sharing 3: Currently, half of the investment portfolio is QQQ-like, half is TSMC, and there is also a mortgage line of credit (financial mortgage). My husband wants to use this line of credit to increase positions when the market falls (TSMC?), but hesitates and is afraid in the middle of the actual fall (soft-handed, unable to do it). This decline allowed him to experience his true risk tolerance. My husband did not accept the full QQQ allocation before, but now he has some experience. It verifies the stability of the teacher’s asset allocation method.
  • James’ Response: Appreciate Monmon’s peaceful state of mind (a good quality for investors, “destiny” + “luck” to meet the teacher). Communicating with family requires patience (it is a 15-30 year undertaking, no rush). The funds from the financial mortgage should be invested as soon as possible (such as 00662), buy blindly, and don’t time the market. When investing, consider the overall asset allocation, include the loan amount in the total asset calculation, and ensure that the total Beta value is within the desired range (such as about 0.7, that is, maintaining an overall ratio of about 70/30), rather than investing all the borrowed money in high-risk assets. It is recommended to keep at least 30% cash (can be 4:1:5 or 5:1:4, Beta 0.6 or 0.7). This decline is a touchstone for risk tolerance, proving the necessity of conservative allocation. Even if young and have a job, 30% cash is also recommended.

From Taiwan

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• Sharing: The situation is similar to Monmon’s. Both myself and the elders invested in 00662/00670L, using Beta 1.2 (4:4:2, that is, 40% 00662, 40% 00670L, 20% cash/00865B) allocation. I can bear the recent fluctuations (the government is quite amazing), but I am not sure whether the elders (who have not watched YouTube, have no financial common sense, but believe and invest) can bear greater future declines (such as 40-80%). Continuously accompany the elders and give them confidence. The elders have a good mentality so far.
• Question: If I want to reduce the Beta for the elders, when and how should I operate?
  • James’ Response: It is generally recommended now that the Beta should not exceed 1.0 (such as 70/30). For an existing allocation of 1.2, it is recommended to evaluate it at the end of each year: if the market rises (such as 00662 returning to the level at the beginning of the year or higher), you can sell part of the leveraged position (00670L) and transfer the funds to cash (00865B), so that the cash ratio is adjusted to 30% or higher. If the market is down at the end of the year, then do not move. The goal is to gradually reduce the Beta to below 1.0. Before that, there is no need to consider complicated rebalancing strategies. Don’t operate too frequently (once a year) to avoid increasing the elders’ anxiety (they may secretly look at the APP).

Lucy

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• Question 1: Investing in QQQ in Canada, the teacher recommends QQC, etc., and mentions avoiding Hedged funds? It seems that most Canadian versions are Hedged? Which one should I choose? (Previously confused HXQ/HSQ).
  • James’ Response: Recommend HXQ.t because it does not pay dividends, making tax treatment simpler. If you already hold QQC.to or ZQQ, there is no need to sell it, and new investments can be bought in HXQ.t. It is also acceptable if only Hedged versions are available locally.
• Question 2: Please explain the asset allocation ratio (such as 70/30, 4:4:2). Time is limited (working, back problems requiring exercise, blood sugar problems), it is difficult to find specific content in videos, and listening to Clubhouse is also time-consuming.
  • James’ Response: (Emphasizing the importance of learning, earning money from work only accounts for a small part of a lifetime of wealth, so you should spend time learning about investment) For ordinary investors working in Canada, the simplest allocation is: 70% HXQ.t + 30% cash/money market fund (Money Market). Check and adjust annually (sell the ones that have risen more to supplement cash, or use cash to buy the ones that have fallen more) to maintain this ratio.
  • (Nibalao Supplement): Canadian local stock dividends have tax advantages, while US-sourced dividends (such as QQC) are taxed (I don’t know how much, but higher than Canadian stock taxes). I agree with the teacher’s point of view: focus on investment returns is higher than focusing on work.
  • James’ Response: Reiterating the advantage of HXQ.t not paying dividends. Canadian funds seem to be performing well, possibly because better compounding due to not paying dividends.
• Sharing (Follow-up): Listening to the teacher’s criticism is very comfortable and helpful. I am impatient, but after listening to the teacher’s patient answers to “stupid questions,” I am more patient in helping others.
  • James’ Response: Asking questions bravely is important.

Jason

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• Sharing: Detailed comparison of the advantages and disadvantages of Bitcoin/cryptocurrencies and QQQ, based on his personal experience in the blockchain industry (entered the industry in 2017, experienced the blockchain/cryptocurrency community, ICO explosion, 2018 bear market):
  • Storage Security: BTC requires self-management of private keys/hardware wallets (cold wallets), which are easy to lose or damage, high risk; QQQ is托管ed by brokers, which is safe.
  • Transaction Security: BTC is vulnerable to hacker attacks, phishing, and platform crashes; QQQ is protected by regulations.
  • Staking/Liquidity: BTC lacks standardized and safe staking channels (DeFi is high risk); QQQ can be easily staked and borrowed (pledged) through brokers without selling.
  • Taxes: Selling BTC requires capital gains tax; holding QQQ for a long time and using pledges can avoid/defer taxes.
  • Legality: BTC has legal risks in China (trading and mining are illegal), and cashing out may be frozen; QQQ (and QDII 513100/513300) are legal and compliant.
  • Volatility/Risk: BTC is extremely volatile (short-term drops of 50-80% are common, such as an 85% drop in 2018), and ordinary people cannot withstand the mental stress; QQQ has a much lower frequency of large fluctuations.
  • Liquidity: The actual circulating volume of BTC is limited (locked by large holders, lost coins), which is not as high as the global liquidity of QQQ.
  • Practicality: Not detailed.
  • Future Returns: BTC has a high market value (nearly 2 trillion US dollars, comparable to top technology companies), and the possibility of super high multiple growth in the future is reduced (even if it rises to 200,000 US dollars/coin, it is only 2-3 times), and the rate of return may tend to be stable, lower than QQQ.
  • Conclusion: Cryptocurrencies are “demons and ghosts,” not suitable for ordinary investors, highly tempting but extremely risky.
• James’ Comment: Completely agree, cryptocurrencies should not be touched. Shared cases of others losing huge amounts of Bitcoin (equivalent to 15 million US dollars) due to unfamiliarity with cross-chain transfer rules (such as transferring between different chains or exchanges that do not support the target chain), emphasizing its complexity and risk (may be a technical problem or fraud).

Responding to Chat Room Questions

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• File Access: In areas with limited Google service, you can download the files and open them with local software (such as Excel).
• 00864B Taxes: According to Angela’s feedback, it is overseas income, which is tax-free if it is less than 1 million Taiwan dollars (or other high limit such as 7.5 million) per year, and is exempt from the second-generation supplementary health insurance premium. The main problem becomes the trouble of manual reinvestment. You need a principal of 25 million to possibly exceed 1 million in interest.
• AI Link: Confirmed that the latest link has been provided.
• Buying QQQ in China: Through QDII funds, such as 513100, 513300. See page 10 of the lecture notes.
• Conflicting Ideas Between Spouses: Patience, use your own controllable funds to set an example. Sometimes even if you prove it, the other person does not recognize it (“past performance does not represent the future”), it depends on fate (destiny).
• Technical Analysis/Prediction: The teacher does not make predictions (when will it bottom out, will there be a recession or crash).
• Robert Kiyosaki: The teacher is critical of him (“he will go bankrupt”).
• Trump Policy: No need to pay attention, high uncertainty, just “drizzle,” impossible to have zero income tax. In the long run, US taxes may increase to deal with the deficit. Do not make decisions based on unconfirmed conclusions.
• Mean Reversion: There is no simple mean reversion in the stock market. The growth of high-tech companies (such as TSMC) will not revert to traditional industries (such as China Steel, Formosa Plastics). Those who think it will revert are “bookworms.” Value stocks (such as Starbucks, McDonald’s) also perform differently.
• 442 Allocation: Not recommended for office workers, it is too risky. Those who have already used it should handle it according to the MM case.
• Investment vs Speculation: The teacher does not agree with the statement that “all investments are speculation.”
• 12-Year Certificates of Deposit vs Compounding: 00865B/VOO etc. are compounded.
• AI Asset Allocation Advice: May be “incorrect” due to questioning methods or AI model understanding deviations.

IV. Highlights

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The market is always fluctuating, the constant in the market is fluctuation, so fluctuation is certain to happen in the market, so you don’t need to analyze where the fluctuation comes from… You see everyone talking so eloquently, in fact, he doesn’t even know what he is talking about… – James

Context: James emphasized the normality and unpredictability of market fluctuations, advising investors not to waste time analyzing the causes of short-term fluctuations.

Investment is buying with the intention of never selling, this is investment. Buying with the intention of selling at a high point is called speculation. – James

Context: James clearly distinguished the core criteria of investment and speculation: whether the purpose is to hold for the long term.

Making a decision about all investment and financial life is very simple, which is long-term, simple and effective… Convenience is a value. No trouble is a value. – James

Context: When comparing 00864B and 00865B, James emphasized that choosing an investment method that is simpler and less troublesome in the long run has value in itself.

You don’t need to risk the money you need for the money you don’t need. – James (quoting/paraphrasing Buffett’s idea)

Context: Explained why even if it is judged that the market may rise, you should keep enough cash buffer (the money you need) and should not take too much risk for additional, potentially unnecessary returns (the money you don’t need).

Later you will find that when humans develop to the extreme, food, clothing, housing, and transportation are all free, all free… Then what does it mean to be alive?… But what is the meaning of a dog? This may be the question that the last 80% of people have to think about. – James

Context: When fantasizing about the future when AI is extremely developed, James raised the question of the profound crisis of existential meaning that humans (especially the majority who do not need to work) will face after material needs are completely satisfied.

The biggest risk comes from [missing] the market… Focus on long-term returns, not this short-term [fluctuation]. – Yao

Context: Sharing the profound experience after reviewing the teacher’s teachings when the market information is chaotic, emphasizing the importance of being in the market for a long time and focusing on long-term goals.

We don’t want to be the first every time, we only want to be the third or fourth every time… Over the long term, we will be the first. – James

Context: Using the analogy of racing to explain the logic of index investing: not pursuing short-term leadership, relying on continuous and steady performance, and ultimately winning in the long cycle.

There is no house that cannot be sold, only a price that cannot be sold. – Monmon

Context: Sharing the experience of selling a house, mentioning that applying this point of view ultimately successfully sold the property.

You should put your focus on investing, and the return is definitely much higher than if you put your focus on working. – Nibalao

Context: When discussing that students do not have time to learn about investment, this student emphasized that based on their own experience, the long-term return of putting energy into investment learning far exceeds that of putting it into work itself.

[Cryptocurrencies] are one of the demons and ghosts… The future return of Bitcoin may tend to be stable, and the teacher also mentioned this issue before. – Jason

Context: Based on industry experience and risk analysis, the student qualified cryptocurrencies as a high-risk category unsuitable for ordinary investors, and pointed out that its future return may not be as good as index funds.

V. Summary

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This Clubhouse episode was rich and insightful, ranging from the macro market philosophy (fluctuation is normal, long-term perspective, optimistic mentality), AI’s disruptive vision of the future (productivity, social structure, meaning of life), to the micro investment practice (ETF selection such as 00865B vs 00864B, Canadian HXQ.t, asset allocation principles such as 70/30, Beta management, risk awareness), all detailed explanations and discussions were provided. The core information is still focused on: adhering to long-term holding of high-quality index funds (especially the Nasdaq 100), understanding and accepting market fluctuations, maintaining rationality and patience, using time compounding, and conducting sound asset allocation according to personal risk tolerance (emphasizing the importance of at least 30% cash), and being vigilant about market noise and high-risk speculative products (such as cryptocurrencies). The Q&A session answered in detail the specific questions encountered by students in different countries, different stages, and different product selections, and emphasized the importance of continuous learning of investment knowledge. Finally, it was reminded again that the Clubhouse will be suspended for the next two weeks.